Weekly Analysis of China-Taiwan Relations and Regional Tensions (October 11, 2024)

China’s growing assertiveness in the region, exemplified by the increasing pressure on Taiwan and maritime disputes with neighboring countries, is becoming a defining feature of regional dynamics. This week has seen a significant uptick in tensions, with China escalating its rhetoric towards Taiwan and deploying a show of force against neighboring countries in the South China Sea. This report delves into these developments and examines their broader implications.

Taiwan’s National Day: A New Era of Resistance

The week started with Taiwan’s National Day, October 10, 2024. This year, the address delivered by President Tsai Ing-wen was imbued with a newfound sense of determination. Taiwan stands resolute in its commitment to safeguarding its independence and sovereignty, even in the face of mounting pressure from the mainland. In his speech, President Tsai emphasized Taiwan’s unwavering belief in democratic values, and its unwavering dedication to the pursuit of peace and stability in the region. He addressed China’s aggressive rhetoric, asserting Taiwan’s right to determine its own future.

This defiance struck a chord with the CCP, leading to a swift and harsh response. Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson, Chen Binhua, branded President Tsai’s words as a provocative promotion of Taiwanese independence. The CCP, with its mantra of “national rejuvenation,” insists on Taiwan’s reunification under its control, portraying it as a historical necessity for its national identity and global ambition.

The CCP’s pronouncements further reinforced its commitment to achieving this goal through military force if necessary. China’s military drills and military exercises aimed at Taiwan, both as a direct response to Taiwanese leadership pronouncements and as a recurring display of force, underscore the inherent threat to Taiwan’s independence.

Czechia & Taiwan: A Partnership Facing PRC Pressure

Adding further fuel to the cross-strait tensions, former President Tsai Ing-wen is scheduled to visit Czechia and other European countries, further inflaming tensions. The planned visit was swiftly condemned by China, with Beijing calling on Czechia and other nations to adhere to the “One China” policy. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, utilizing a familiar playbook, has publicly rebuked Czechia, imploring it to refrain from engaging with what they term “Taiwanese separatist forces.”

While Beijing wields a significant amount of diplomatic influence on the global stage, these pressures haven’t silenced the voices of those who believe in supporting a democratic Taiwan. Czechia and Taiwan have shown a commitment to developing deeper relations despite Beijing’s disapproval. The recent strengthening of political, economic, and security ties between the two countries represents a direct challenge to China’s attempts to isolate Taiwan on the world stage.

Espionage in America: A Shadow War

A new dimension to China-US relations emerged this week with the FBI announcing charges against five PRC nationals who were found taking photos of US military equipment at a US military base in August 2023. This incident, while seemingly minor, highlights a growing trend of Chinese attempts at gaining sensitive information in the US. The FBI alleges these individuals, initially posing as students, were involved in a deliberate espionage operation.

While China frequently denies its involvement in espionage, it is increasingly difficult to dismiss these actions as isolated incidents. The PRC’s official denial of involvement, despite clear evidence to the contrary, underscores its willingness to operate within the shadows and avoid direct accountability.

China in Southeast Asia: Pushing Boundaries and Confronting Neighbors

China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea continued to spark tensions with its neighboring countries. The latest incident involved the China Coast Guard (CCG) firing water cannons at Philippine civilian vessels undertaking a resupply mission in the Scarborough Shoal. This latest action further demonstrates China’s intent to control and assert dominance in the region.

The Philippine government, undeterred, has responded with its own diplomatic measures, calling for the adherence to international law and the peaceful resolution of disputes. Furthermore, ongoing joint military exercises between the Philippines, the US, and other allies in the region send a strong message that China’s attempts to control maritime territories are not going unchallenged.

Vietnam, China, and the Paracel Islands: A Dangerous Dynamic

The dispute in the Paracel Islands also escalated this week with Vietnam accusing PRC law enforcement of an attack on Vietnamese fishermen in the contested area. This incident reinforces a pattern of China using force and intimidation to enforce its claim over disputed territories, further exacerbating regional tensions.

Vietnam’s decision to publicly condemn the PRC’s actions underscores the escalating dangers in the region. China, meanwhile, claims its actions were justified as the fishermen were operating illegally in its waters. However, Beijing’s failure to address the specific allegations of physical assault on the fishermen highlights its own disregard for international law and a lack of transparency in its actions.

The PRC has been increasingly forceful in the South China Sea, deploying a wide array of tactics to exert its influence over contested maritime territories. Its actions have brought forth anxieties in its neighbors and solidified the role of the US and its allies as a crucial counterbalance.

China and Russia: A Strategic Partnership of Interest

Russia and China continue to deepen their strategic partnership, engaging in joint military drills in the Pacific, a clear demonstration of their shared ambitions and a move that concerns both NATO and regional players. Their partnership in the Pacific and the PRC’s support for Russia’s narrative surrounding the war in Ukraine, including its backing of Russian calls for a UN investigation into the Nord Stream 2 pipeline destruction, exemplifies their shared agenda in defying the established Western-led global order.

While the PRC hasn’t provided direct military support to Russia in its war with Ukraine, it continues to provide political and economic support, allowing Russia to maneuver diplomatically and economically even under immense Western pressure. This strategic partnership continues to create a dangerous precedent and raises concerns over a potential realignment of global power.

Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan: A Regional Threat

The deadly IED attack on two Chinese nationals in Karachi, Pakistan, this week carried out by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), reveals the vulnerability of Chinese interests in the region and emphasizes the growing risks that accompany China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI, aimed at increasing China’s economic and political influence through infrastructure development, has come under fire due to its potential for fueling political instability and creating security concerns in its host nations.

This attack, along with the recent attack on a military convoy in Balochistan, signals that the BLA poses a substantial threat to the BRI and serves as a wake-up call to the Pakistani government about its limited ability to control militant groups. It also raises serious questions about the security of Chinese investments and nationals throughout the region.

The Unstable Equilibrium: A Look Ahead

This week’s events highlight a growing sense of unease in the region. China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy and the use of intimidation, both military and diplomatic, are pushing its neighbors to strengthen their own defense capabilities and forge closer alliances. The CCP’s stance toward Taiwan, with its constant pronouncements of “national rejuvenation,” has triggered an unsettling dynamic. Its constant threat of force hangs over Taiwan, forcing a sense of vulnerability while also pushing the country toward building its own defenses.

The South China Sea, a volatile region where China and its neighbors grapple over sovereignty claims, is becoming a site of growing tension, a flashpoint with the potential to ignite larger regional conflicts.

The global order appears to be in a state of flux. China’s ambitions and Russia’s aggressive actions are creating a dangerous precedent for the future of global affairs. The week’s developments reveal an evolving, dangerous world where a peaceful and collaborative solution to conflicts remains an increasingly distant prospect.

FAQs:

What are China’s key strategic goals in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea?

China’s ultimate aim is to achieve “national rejuvenation” by 2049, which includes reunifying Taiwan with the mainland and asserting dominance in the South China Sea, using these territories as both economic resources and as platforms to assert its influence in the region and globally.

How is the “One-China Policy” being used as a tool by Beijing in its foreign policy?

• The “One-China Policy,” a framework Beijing attempts to impose on the global stage, is utilized by the PRC to demand that other countries acknowledge the PRC as the sole representative of China and Taiwan as an integral part of its territory. This pressure tactic limits Taiwan’s global relations and isolates the island, serving as a way for Beijing to undermine its sovereignty.

Why is the US showing growing involvement in the South China Sea?

• The US is seeking to maintain a robust naval presence in the region, conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations, and working closely with its allies to push back against China’s aggressive actions, thereby upholding the established rules-based order and preventing China’s unchecked influence in the area.

How does the PRC-Russia partnership threaten the existing global order?

• The increasingly strong alliance between China and Russia, demonstrated through their joint military drills and diplomatic alignments, challenges the established Western-led order, creating a multipolar dynamic where global influence is increasingly divided. This partnership, while not directly aligned militarily, provides a united front against the Western bloc and creates a potential counterweight in the face of growing tensions.

What are the risks associated with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)?

• The BRI, while an ambitious plan to increase global interconnectedness, has inherent risks. By expanding economic and infrastructure development across a vast swathe of countries, it opens China to vulnerability in terms of security. It has the potential to become a catalyst for political instability and unrest in host countries, creating an environment susceptible to terrorist and militant activity and potentially putting Chinese nationals and investments at risk.