The Rise of War in 2023
In 2023, the world saw an increase in armed conflicts for the first time in 6 years. Many of these hotspots around the globe are interconnected in complex ways. Some of the developments came as a surprise, so let’s take a closer look at the key conflicts happening around the world.
Syria
Syria
In 2011, protests against President Assad’s regime erupted into full-scale civil war between government forces and rebel groups. Russia and Iran backed the Syrian regime militarily, while the US and allies backed the rebels. As of 2023, Assad controls about 70% of Syrian territory, having regained ground with Russian and Iranian support.
Syria’s economy has increasingly relied on drug trafficking to generate revenue. The Syrian military has reportedly earned large sums selling amphetamines, with some estimates stating it now comprises 90% of Syria’s foreign currency income. This gives Assad potential leverage over neighbors like Saudi Arabia also facing an influx of drugs.
Meanwhile, the Islamic State (ISIS) has been severely weakened in Syria after controlling significant territory in 2014. However, around 10,000 ISIS fighters are still detained in Iraq and Syria, posing an ongoing threat if released.
Mexico
In Mexico, cartel violence has been leaving around 30,000 people dead annually since 2018. Mexico’s security forces have perpetrated many human rights violations in the name of the drug war. This crisis has also driven a migration spike along the US-Mexico border, with over 2.5 million migrant encounters in 2023 — a new record high.
In 2022, Mexico’s Congress approved allowing the military to enforce domestic law until 2028 to crack down on cartels. However, human rights groups allege this is enabling increased abuse and erosion of rights. Critics question how long the US will tolerate the situation before intervening.
Haiti
Haiti, the poorest country in the Western hemisphere, has faced growing chaos after the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Gangs now control much of the capital and 60% of the country’s territory, fighting each other for supremacy. Over 2,400 Haitians have been killed or abducted recently, prompting vigilante responses.
In October 2023, a UN force led by Kenya finally deployed to help Haitian police counter gangs. With nearly half the national police force having quit, these troops have authority for lethal force against the powerful gangs that have become Haiti’s de facto rulers.
Somalia
Somalia faces imminent famine, with over 7 million people food insecure. Al-Shabaab, one of the world’s richest terror groups that emerged in 2006, has capitalized on Somalia’s weak central state to control territory while extorting and stealing from locals.
A UN peacekeeping mission of over 20,000 personnel, plus frequent US airstrikes, has aimed to curb al-Shabaab and stabilize Somalia. However, there are concerns that the recent Taliban takeover in Afghanistan is enabling a resurgent Islamic State to use the country as a base for global terror operations.
Sahel Region of Africa
Six countries across the Sahel region of Africa are now ruled by military juntas after coups overthrew previous governments. This led France to withdraw counterterrorism forces after 10 years, creating a security vacuum that Islamist militants are exploiting with bold attacks.
The coup leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger propose forming an alliance to pool resources against insurgents. However, experts believe their “Alliance of Sahel States” mainly seeks to entrench the military regimes.
India
India has suspended visas to Canada after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India’s government of assassinating a Sikh leader on Canadian soil. This stems from separatist movements in the Sikh-majority Indian state of Punjab that have sparked tension for decades.
Meanwhile, troops in India’s northeast were ordered to “shoot-on-sight” during protests there in 2023. Critics allege police violence and over 500 burned churches, targeting Christian minorities in the region.
With rising Hindu nationalism and minority fears of lost representation, India struggles to contain various separatist movements threatening its democracy. There are also border disputes with Pakistan and China in contested Kashmir.
Afghanistan
Since the 2021 Taliban takeover, Afghanistan has seen a resurgent Islamic State emerge to attack both the Taliban and religious minorities. Despite enmity between the Taliban and ISIS, the Taliban’s rise enabled ISIS-K to use Afghanistan as a global terror headquarters for plotting attacks worldwide.
In late 2023, the Taliban imposed extreme new laws restricting women’s rights to work, education, and public life after having promised moderate policies initially.
Myanmar
Myanmar’s military junta ousted the elected government in a 2021 coup, prompting pro-democracy militias to form in resistance. After almost four years of conflict, opposition groups believe they can finally end military rule. The instability threatens China’s substantial economic interests in Myanmar.
Fighting has displaced over 1 million people in Myanmar, with 2023 being the deadliest year yet for civilians due to indiscriminate military air strikes against populated areas. Despite almost 40 active militias, the pro-democracy rebels have made gains that could allow for a unified interim government if the coup regime falls.
Armenia and Azerbaijan
Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war in 2020 over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has an ethnic Armenian majority population. Azerbaijan’s military used technologically advanced drones and artillery to decisively retake the province in 44 days.
Over 50,000 have died in this decades-long conflict between rivals backed by Turkey and Russia. A September 2023 ceasefire brokered by Russia saw Azerbaijan take control of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia conceded, agreeing to demilitarize the area, while over 100,000 ethnic Armenians evacuated their homes.
Indonesia
An insurgency continues in the jungles of Indonesia’s West Papua province, where rebels seek independence from Indonesian control. The hostage taking of a New Zealand pilot in 2023 highlights the conflict. Rebels have battled Indonesian security forces for 60 years, exacerbated by economic inequality for native Papuans.
However, with Indonesia considered a crucial American ally against China, US-armed Indonesian forces substantially outgun the lightly equipped West Papuan fighters. Critics allege abusive military tactics against civilians suspected of separatist sympathies.
Ukraine
While the war in Ukraine dominated global headlines in 2022, the pace of territorial change slowed in 2023 on both sides. After Ukraine’s counteroffensive earlier in 2023 recaptured substantial land from Russia, the front lines have largely stalled with no major movements in months.
As the conflict potentially enters a stalemate, there are concerns about declining Western support for Ukraine as losses approach 500,000 on both sides. For now, the borders remain frozen, with Russia still occupying around 18% of Ukrainian land. But there are worries this war may grind on indefinitely.
Israel and Palestinian Territories
After a major October 2023 attack by Hamas killed over 1,330 Israelis, Israel launched a new ground offensive in Gaza seeking to destroy Hamas. As of December 2023, Israel has secured much of northern Gaza to root out Hamas fighters in house-to-house urban battles.
However, the campaign has raised humanitarian concerns and threats of expanded regional war if Iran directs proxy militias in Syria and Lebanon to open new fronts against Israel. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have seized civilian vessels in response.
Conclusion
While armed conflicts sadly rose worldwide in 2023, the resilience of populations impacted by war can provide some hope. Much remains uncertain for 2024, but continued diplomacy and humanitarian aid efforts must persist to prevent further loss of life in these crises. Perhaps a decrease in wars awaits the world in the new year ahead.
FAQs
What regions saw the most armed conflict in 2023?
The Middle East (Syria, Israel/Palestine, Yemen), Africa (Somalia, Sahel region countries), and Asia (Afghanistan, Myanmar) experienced some of the most widespread fighting and instability.
Which conflicts pose the greatest risk of further escalation?
The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and proxy battles between Iran and its regional rivals could easily spiral into a broader regional conflagration. Tensions between nuclear armed rivals India and Pakistan also bear close monitoring.
How did Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impact global conflicts?
Russia’s distraction with heavy losses in Ukraine may have enabled Taliban and ISIS comebacks in Afghanistan as well as the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war. It also sparked global inflation and food insecurity, exacerbating instability in poor countries.
Will climate change and natural disasters exacerbate wars?
Yes, research strongly supports climate change and resultant disasters as threat multipliers for armed conflicts, primarily by decreasing food and water supplies to spur desperation and migration.
What emerging technologies played key roles in modern conflicts?
Small drones for reconnaissance and attacks were battle-deciding factors in Azerbaijan-Armenia and increasingly ubiquitous elsewhere. Digital propaganda and ethnic hated fueled wars in Ethiopia and Myanmar. Advancing autonomous weapons likely loom on the horizon.
