The Rafah Invasion, Putin’s Nuclear Games and More

Gaza on the Brink

The situation in the Palestinian city of Rafah appears to be escalating towards a full-scale Israeli invasion. With the Israeli government vowing a sweeping assault and much of the world warning of devastating consequences, the Israel-Hamas war seems to be entering a deadly final phase.

On May 7th, an Israeli tank brigade seized critical border crossings between Gaza and Egypt, cutting off Hamas’ access routes except for the Erez crossing in the north. Israel aims to isolate and encircle the remaining four Hamas brigades inside Rafah before a potential ground offensive.

Israel’s Strategic Checkmate

By controlling access into Rafah, Israel has gained significant leverage to impose pressure on Hamas. Over half of Gaza’s 2.3 million population has been displaced to Rafah, with many told multiple times to relocate to avoid fighting. Food is running low, and aid is unable to enter due to the blockaded crossings.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the government’s intent clearly: “We will enter Rafah because we have no other choice. We will destroy the Hamas battalions there. We will complete all the objectives of the war, including the return of all our hostages.”

International Outcry and Ceasefire Efforts

Israel’s Western allies have attempted to assert pressure to prevent the invasion. The US has paused a weapons shipment over concerns about their potential use in Rafah. Egypt, Qatar, and the UK have warned Israel that an escalation would be catastrophic. Ceasefire negotiations have been ongoing but plagued by setbacks.

American officials have drawn a distinction between Israel’s operations at the border checkpoints and a full-scale Rafah invasion. This technicality provides leeway for continued engagement while allowing Israel to heighten military pressure on Hamas.

Humanitarian Crisis Looms

However, an invasion of the densely populated Rafah could lead to immense suffering. Over a million Gazans are already on the brink of famine, according to the World Food Programme. The elderly, sick, and children under five are most at risk of starvation.

Whether Israel chooses invasion or not may determine if the region cascades into mass death and suffering in the coming weeks. The window to avert this catastrophe is rapidly closing.

Putin’s Nuclear Posturing

On May 6th, Russia announced it would conduct military exercises practicing the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. This move was framed as a response to perceived threats from France, Britain, and the US over their military aid to Ukraine.

The exercises will involve simulating the use of Russia’s estimated 1,558 non-strategic nuclear warheads, a highly provocative signal aimed at the Western world. While Russia claims these are “non-strategic” weapons, NATO nations view any nuclear detonation as an escalation that could trigger all-out nuclear war.

Blurring the Tactical-Strategic Distinction

The distinction between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons is somewhat artificial. While intended for more precision targeting, their use could rapidly escalate into a nuclear exchange. As the UN warned, “All actions that could lead to miscalculation [and] escalation with catastrophic consequences must be avoided.”

Both Russia and the West have engaged in nuclear brinkmanship over Ukraine. Russia hopes invoking tactical nukes will deter further Western military aid, aware that even simulating their use alarms NATO.

A Psychological Power Play

For Moscow, hinting at tactical nuclear deployment holds immense psychological power, even if their actual use seems unlikely at present. It forces Western contingency planners to scrutinize Russia’s actions and decipher its opaque redlines.

Russia is vague about what conditions justify nuclear escalation, allowing it to continuously insinuate the threat. This coerces adversaries into self-restraint to avoid pushing past perceived Russian redlines, granting Moscow considerable leverage.

Georgia’s Cross-Roads Protests

Meanwhile, the small nation of Georgia has become Ground Zero in a battle over its future allegiances. Hundreds of thousands have paralyzed the capital Tbilisi in nightly protests against a “foreign agent” law mimicking restrictive Russian legislation.

The ruling Georgian Dream party, aligned with Russia, backs the law on purported national security grounds. But protesters view it as an attempt to stifle dissent and freedoms, definitively pulling Georgia away from its constitutionally enshrined pro-Western aspirations.

Echoes of Ukraine’s Maidan

Authorities have forcefully dispersed crowds and threatened to create a database of “violent” protesters, evoking Soviet-era repression tactics. The parallels with Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan uprising that ousted its pro-Russian president are striking — and deliberate, according to Georgia’s intelligence service.

However, unlike in Ukraine, an escalation to lethal force could prompt a very different outcome — Russian military intervention to prop up its ally, akin to its crackdowns in Belarus and Kazakhstan. While a low probability, even a limited incursion could net Putin strategic gains.

A Geopolitical Turning Point

Georgia faces a historical turning point — definitively swinging towards the West and EU/NATO membership, or abandoning those aspirations. Its choice will have ripple effects across the ex-Soviet space. If the ruling party doesn’t back down, the largest protests yet may unfold after the law’s likely final passage on May 17th.

Houthi Rebel Disruptions in Red Sea

Finally, in the Red Sea, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have evolved into long-term disruptors after months of intermittent strikes on commercial shipping. Their sustained drone and missile campaign has sunk vessels, killed sailors, and most importantly, forced a realignment of global maritime trade routes.

By making the Red Sea less safe, the Houthis have compelled shippers to divert around the African cape, incurring higher costs that are being passed to consumers. Global insurers now expect the disruptions to last until at least late 2024 as the “risk zone” expands.

A Rebel Group Too Big to Ignore

Though their success rate is low, the Houthis’ ability to force this reaction from the shipping industry lends them credibility. They have also threatened to strike the Eastern Mediterranean if Israel invades Rafah, which could further disrupt key shipping lanes.

Once an ignored rebel group, the Houthis are transforming into a regional player that the West can no longer simply bypass. Lacking a viable strategy to uproot them, the world may have to adapt to the Houthis extorting concessions through persistent attacks on maritime trade.

Conclusion

From Gaza to Moscow, Georgia, and the Red Sea, geopolitical flashpoints are intensifying on multiple fronts. The threat of devastating violence looms as the world weighs how to respond to rapidly evolving crises that could escalate into broader conflagrations.

Prompt and deft diplomacy will be crucial to navigate these treacherous waters and prevent a descent into chaos with catastrophic human costs. The decisions made in the coming days and weeks may shape the trajectory of the entire decade to come.

FAQs

1. What is the significance of Israel’s operations around Rafah?

Israel has seized control of Gaza’s border crossings into Rafah, isolating Hamas forces there. This grants Israel leverage to impose pressure before a potential ground invasion aimed at taking out Hamas’ remaining brigades and recovering hostages.

2. Why is Russia’s announcement of nuclear drills so concerning?

Russia claims the drills simulating tactical nuclear weapon use are a response to Western military aid to Ukraine. However, any nuclear escalation raises the risk of miscalculation sparking an all-out nuclear war, blurring the tactical-strategic distinction.

3. What’s at stake in the protests in Georgia?

The protests reflect a deeper battle over Georgia’s geopolitical orientation. The ruling party’s “foreign agent” law could pull Georgia away from its constitutional pro-Western leanings towards Russia’s orbit, with implications for the wider ex-Soviet space.

4. How have the Houthi rebels disrupted global shipping?

Through intermittent missile and drone strikes, the Houthis have made the Red Sea shipping lanes unsafe, forcing vessels to take longer routes around Africa. This has spiked costs and could persist for years as the “threat zone” grows.

5. What connects these global flashpoints?

These escalating crises, from a looming Gaza invasion to nuclear risks over Ukraine and regional influence battles, all underscore the volatile global situation. Deft diplomacy is needed to prevent further escalation into devastating violence across multiple fronts.

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