The Forgotten Crisis: Is North Korea a Greater Threat Than Ever?

6 min readJun 7, 2024

Remember the nail-biting tension of late 2017 and early 2018? The Hawaii missile alert that sent chills down our spines? The constant media speculation about a potential North Korean nuclear attack on the US? It felt like the world was holding its breath, bracing for a war that could have reshaped the geopolitical landscape.

Fast forward to today, and the world’s attention has shifted. With the horrors of the Ukraine war, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and China’s increasingly assertive stance on Taiwan, North Korea seems to have faded into the background. But is this a dangerous oversight? Are we underestimating the threat posed by Kim Jong-un’s regime? Let’s dive into the complexities of the situation and see if the world is overlooking a potential powder keg.

A Resurgence of Aggression: Kim’s Ominous Signals

While the global spotlight focuses elsewhere, North Korea has been busy. And no, we’re not talking about their surprising economic growth. Kim Jong-un’s regime has been signaling a resurgence of aggression, raising concerns among analysts and policymakers alike. Here’s why:

1. Abandoning Reunification, Embracing Hostility:

In a dramatic departure from decades of policy, Kim Jong-un has officially abandoned the pursuit of Korean reunification. He’s replaced it with a chilling new objective: the complete subjugation and annexation of South Korea. This shift in rhetoric was cemented by the symbolic bulldozing of the reunification monument in Pyongyang.

2. A Show of Force: Military Provocations on the Rise:

Words are one thing, but Kim’s actions speak even louder. The past few months have witnessed a series of military provocations aimed at rattling South Korea and its allies:

Testing of new underground attack drones designed for surprise assaults.
Artillery fire on South Korean territory, forcing the evacuation of civilians.
Heightened terror alerts for South Korean diplomatic missions worldwide, suggesting potential attacks.

3. The Kim-Putin Alliance: A Dangerous Liaison:

Adding another layer of concern to the mix is North Korea’s blossoming relationship with Russia. Since last summer, Pyongyang has been supplying Moscow with artillery ammunition to fuel its war machine in Ukraine. In return, Russia has shielded North Korea from international scrutiny at the UN Security Council.

This alliance raises several red flags:

It provides North Korea with much-needed financial resources and weakens the impact of international sanctions.
It offers Kim Jong-un a testing ground for his weapons, allowing him to refine his arsenal based on real-world performance data.
There are fears that Russia might provide North Korea with advanced military technology in return, further bolstering its capabilities.

A Nuclear Threat: The Shadow of Mass Destruction Looms Large

While North Korea’s conventional military might pales in comparison to South Korea and its allies, its nuclear program remains a wild card — and a terrifying one at that.

1. Advancing Missile Technology: Reaching Further, Striking Faster:

Gone are the days when North Korean missiles were the subject of mockery. The regime has made significant strides in its missile technology:

The successful test of the Hwasong-18, a new, more powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of striking targets across the continental United States.
The development of solid-fuel missiles like the Hwasong-16b, which are easier to hide, transport, and launch with minimal warning time.

These advancements mean that North Korea could soon pose a credible threat to American cities, not just military bases in the Pacific.

2. A Growing Nuclear Arsenal: The Ticking Time Bomb:

North Korea’s nuclear stockpile is not just becoming more potent; it’s also growing. Experts estimate that Pyongyang currently possesses between 80 and 90 nuclear warheads, a significant leap from just a few years ago.

3. The Specter of a Seventh Nuclear Test:

There’s growing concern that Kim Jong-un might be planning a seventh nuclear test, potentially timed to coincide with the 2024 US presidential election. Such a move would be a highly destabilizing provocation with unpredictable consequences.

Beyond War: Other Ways North Korea Could Destabilize the World

While the prospect of another Korean War is terrifying, it’s not the only way North Korea could disrupt the global order. Here are a few other possibilities:

1. Fueling Global Conflicts: The Arms Dealer of Choice?

Now that North Korea has established itself as a reliable arms supplier for Russia, there’s a real risk that it could become a go-to source for other rogue regimes or actors. This could prolong existing conflicts, escalate regional tensions, and undermine international efforts to control the proliferation of weapons.

2. Triggering a Regional Nuclear Arms Race:

An isolationist shift in US foreign policy, coupled with heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, could create a security vacuum in Northeast Asia. This could incentivize South Korea and potentially even Japan to develop their nuclear deterrents, leading to a dangerous arms race.

Competing Narratives: Is Kim Gearing Up for War or Business?

While some analysts believe that Kim Jong-un is prepared to risk it all in a devastating war, others argue that his recent actions are more about self-preservation and profit. They point to a few key factors:

Why Supply Russia?: If Kim was truly planning an imminent attack on South Korea, he wouldn’t be depleting his own military stockpiles to support Russia.
Economic Incentives: North Korea’s economy is showing signs of growth, largely due to increased trade with Russia and China. It seems counterintuitive for Kim to jeopardize this newfound economic stability by initiating a conflict he’s likely to lose.
Internal Control: Some experts believe that the heightened aggression towards South Korea and the US is primarily aimed at justifying a domestic crackdown on South Korean cultural influence, which is seen as a threat to the regime’s grip on power.

The Verdict: Don’t Hit the Snooze Button Just Yet

So, is the world underestimating the North Korean threat? The answer, unfortunately, is far from clear-cut. While a full-scale war might not be imminent, the situation remains highly volatile and unpredictable. Kim Jong-un has a track record of making irrational decisions and thrives on brinkmanship.

Here’s what we do know:

North Korea’s military capabilities are improving: They are rapidly developing more advanced and powerful weapons, posing a growing threat to the region and potentially beyond.
The regime is actively seeking to undermine the international order: Their alliance with Russia and potential arms deals with other rogue actors are destabilizing factors that warrant serious attention.
The risk of miscalculation is ever-present: In a region already on edge, a single misstep or misunderstanding could have catastrophic consequences.

While other global crises might dominate the headlines, it’s crucial that the world doesn’t forget about the threat simmering on the Korean Peninsula.

FAQs

1. Could North Korea actually win a war against South Korea and the US?

Most military analysts agree that North Korea would ultimately lose a conventional war against South Korea and the United States. However, the real danger lies in the potential for the conflict to escalate rapidly, potentially involving the use of nuclear weapons and resulting in devastating casualties on both sides.

2. Why does North Korea want nuclear weapons in the first place?

Kim Jong-un sees nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantor of his regime’s survival. He believes that possessing these weapons will deter foreign powers from attempting to overthrow him. Additionally, nuclear weapons provide North Korea with international leverage and a seat at the table in global affairs.

3. What can the international community do to address the North Korean threat?

The international community faces a complex challenge in dealing with North Korea. Diplomacy, sanctions, and military deterrence have all been employed, with limited success. Key priorities include:

Maintaining a united front: Preventing North Korea from exploiting divisions within the international community is essential.
Finding creative diplomatic solutions: While difficult, exploring avenues for dialogue and engagement remains crucial.
Strengthening regional security cooperation: Enhancing military coordination and intelligence sharing between the US, South Korea, and Japan is vital to deterring North Korean aggression.

4. How likely is a North Korean nuclear attack on the United States?

While North Korea now possesses the capability to strike the continental United States with nuclear weapons, the likelihood of such an attack remains a subject of intense debate among experts. Some believe that Kim Jong-un is rational enough to understand that such an act would be suicidal, while others fear that he might resort to nuclear weapons if he feels his regime is existentially threatened.

5. What is the biggest misconception about the North Korean threat?

One of the biggest misconceptions is that North Korea is an irrational actor driven solely by ideology. While ideology plays a role, Kim Jong-un is also a pragmatic leader primarily focused on maintaining his grip on power and ensuring the survival of his regime. Understanding his motivations is key to effectively addressing the challenges posed by North Korea.