AUSSOM and the AU: A Turning Point for Somali Security or a Precarious Dance with Uncertainty?

The African Union (AU) and the United Nations are deep in the throes of finalizing a new AU-led peacekeeping mission for Somalia, slated to replace the current AU mission, AMISOM, upon its expiration at the end of 2024. This transition is a crucial moment in Somalia’s fragile journey towards peace and stability, a path punctuated by decades of conflict and the ever-present shadow of al-Shabaab’s insurgency.

The Shift in Focus: From State-Building to Peace-Building

The new AU mission, codenamed “AUSSOM”, will prioritize peace-building and stabilization efforts over the more ambitious and often-elusive objective of state-building. This strategic shift signifies a pragmatic recognition of the complexities of the Somali context. While the AU has long played a critical role in containing al-Shabaab and assisting with security, the realities of weak governance, corruption, and an ever-shifting political landscape in Somalia necessitate a revised approach.

Devolving State-Building Responsibilities: The Role of International Partners

The decision to leave the task of state-building to international partners and the Somali Federal Government (SFG) is significant. This implies a transition from direct AU involvement to a more supportive, indirect role. The AU will likely focus on maintaining security and creating a conducive environment for the SFG to build its institutions and strengthen its governance. However, this delicate hand-off comes with its own challenges. The SFG’s capacity to assume these responsibilities is questionable, and international partners often operate with competing agendas and approaches.

AUSSOM’s Troop Contributions: A Complex Puzzle

As AUSSOM takes shape, the composition of its troop contributions remains shrouded in uncertainty. While Egypt has expressed interest in contributing to the AU mission for the first time, the participation of four of the five current troop-contributing countries, including Ethiopia, is yet to be confirmed. The AU’s capacity to effectively manage this transition hinges on securing strong commitments from its member states, both in terms of troops and funding. This uncertainty could potentially impact the AU mission’s effectiveness and could lead to strategic instability in Somalia.

Beyond the Battlefield: The Political Landscape and Governance Challenges

The political context in Somalia is just as complex and challenging as the security environment. The SFG’s own governance capabilities are often undermined by internal disputes, power struggles, and political infighting. Additionally, there are lingering tensions between the SFG and the Federal Member States (FMS), a dynamic that could exacerbate existing challenges to state-building and governance.

AUSSOM’s Success: Navigating a Minefield of Political and Security Challenges

The success of AUSSOM will depend on the AU’s ability to navigate this complex minefield of political and security challenges. Maintaining its peacekeeping operations effectively, fostering dialogue and consensus-building among various stakeholders, and effectively coordinating with international partners are all critical to building sustainable peace and security in Somalia. It remains to be seen whether AUSSOM can address these intricate challenges or if the transition will only serve to deepen existing fragilities in Somalia’s quest for stability.

FAQs

1. What is AMISOM and why is it being replaced?

AMISOM is the African Union Mission in Somalia, established in 2007 to help the Somali Federal Government fight the insurgency led by the al-Shabaab terror group. However, with the mission approaching its end in 2024, the AU and the UN have decided to transition to a new, AU-led mission called AUSSOM to prioritize peace-building over state-building. This transition aims to address the complexities of the Somali context and encourage the Somali government to assume greater responsibility for governance.

2. What is the role of the Somali Federal Government (SFG) in the transition?

The Somali government plays a critical role in the transition by actively participating in negotiations with the AU, the UN, and international partners to define the scope of the new AU mission. The SFG is expected to assume a greater role in governing Somalia, including the task of state-building.

3. How does Ethiopia’s stance on AUSSOM affect the mission?

Ethiopia has been a significant troop contributor to the AMISOM mission. Its decision on participating in AUSSOM will have a major impact on the mission’s effectiveness. The AU must secure a strong commitment from Ethiopia if it hopes to maintain the level of security it has been able to provide.

4. What are the main challenges to achieving a sustainable peace in Somalia?

Achieving a sustainable peace in Somalia is a daunting task that involves multiple challenges, including:

• Al-Shabaab Insurgency: The ongoing insurgency poses a significant threat to security and stability, hindering efforts to establish effective governance.
• Fragile Governance: The Somali government faces multiple challenges in building and maintaining effective governance. Corruption, clan rivalries, and a lack of political consensus often undermine state-building efforts.
• International Partner Involvement: Competing interests and approaches among international partners make coordinating aid and intervention difficult, often leading to unintended consequences.

5. What role can international partners play in supporting the new AU mission?

International partners have a significant role to play in supporting the new AU mission in Somalia. This includes:

• Financial and Military Aid: Providing substantial financial and military assistance to both the AU mission and the Somali government.
• Technical Expertise: Sharing technical expertise in areas such as security, governance, and economic development.
• Diplomacy and Dialogue: Actively engaging in diplomacy and facilitating dialogue among Somali stakeholders to promote political stability.