Are Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan on the Brink of War?

The region where Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan converge is facing a dangerous escalation of violence and instability. Communal life is fractured, international borders are routinely violated, and both militant groups and national militaries are engaged in clandestine operations. Reciprocal skirmishes are becoming increasingly frequent, raising concerns that this “triad” is spiraling towards a full-blown regional conflict. This article examines the intertwined factors fueling this crisis, including ethnic tensions, resource scarcity, and the rise of proxy conflicts, to assess the likelihood of a wider war. Keep in mind that my information is only up to June 2024, and the situation may have changed since then.

The Smudged Borders of Khorasan

Beneath the modern boundaries lies the ghost of Khorasan, a historical region that evokes memories of ancient empires vying for dominance. This area, once a rich cultural and political center, has become a battleground for competing interests. The Durand Line, established in 1893, which demarcates the border between British India (now Pakistan) and Afghanistan, is a key source of contention. Drawn without regard for existing ethnic and geographical realities, the Durand Line divided Pashtun communities, fueling irredentist sentiments in Afghanistan, where successive governments have rejected its legitimacy.

• The Pashtun Question: Afghanistan claims Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan regions due to the significant Pashtun population residing there. The potential unification of Pashtuns could create a stronger, landlocked Afghanistan with access to the ocean through Baluchistan.
• The Taliban’s Stance: The Taliban, despite avoiding overt Pashtun nationalism, opposes the Durand Line, drawing support from this stance. The Pakistani Taliban, distinct from the Afghan Taliban, aims to undermine Pakistan’s control over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Militancy and Shifting Alliances

The region is rife with militant groups, each pursuing their own agendas.

• The Pakistani Taliban: Designated a terrorist group by Islamabad in 2008, it frequently clashes with Pakistani forces, carrying out attacks and kidnappings.
• ISIS-K (Islamic State Khorasan Province): While having global ambitions, ISIS-K primarily focuses on fighting within Afghanistan.
• Baloch Separatist Groups: Various Baloch groups, such as the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), operate primarily within Pakistan, seeking an independent state. Jaish al-Adl, a jihadist unit operating in Iran, shares similar goals. These groups have reportedly acquired weapons and equipment, leading to deadlier attacks.

These groups exploit existing ethnic and sectarian tensions:

• Baloch Marginalization: The Baloch, a divided people primarily residing in Pakistan, feel marginalized and see their cultural identity as threatened. This vulnerability extends to the Baloch in Iran, who, unlike the Shia majority, are mostly Sunni, further fueling separatist sentiments.
• Taliban-Baloch Alliance: The Taliban’s alliance with Baloch groups is a strategic play for territorial gains in Pakistan, despite conflicting territorial claims.

Water Wars

Resource scarcity, particularly water, is exacerbating tensions between Iran and Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s control over water flowing from the Hindu Kush mountains, which feeds hydroelectric dams, limits access for downstream Iran.

• The Helmand River Dispute: The Helmand River, flowing from Afghanistan to the Hamun Lakes on the Iranian border, is a major source of contention. The 1973 Helmand Water Treaty, which grants Iran water rights, has never been ratified, leading to disputes over enforcement.
• Historical Skirmishes: Tensions over water rights have repeatedly escalated, with skirmishes flaring up periodically. In 1998, Iran mobilized troops on the Afghan border due to water disputes. Clashes occurred as recently as May 2023 near the Hamun Lakes, resulting in casualties on both sides.

The Proxy Provocation Theory

The convergence of these factors — ethnic tensions, militant groups, and resource scarcity — is creating a dangerous environment where smaller factions could instigate a larger conflict. The “proxy provocation theory” suggests that smaller powers can manipulate larger ones into conflict by creating situations that compel them to respond in ways that serve the smaller powers’ interests. The region, from Pakistan’s northwest to Iran’s southeast and Afghanistan’s south, is becoming a single battle space where human trafficking, drug smuggling, jihadist fighters, and separatist factions are blending into a self-destructive security crisis.

Conclusion

The triad of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan faces a complex and escalating crisis. Failed attempts to control ethnic, nationalist, and ideological forces have led to a dangerous merging of conflicts. If the current trajectory continues, the risk of a direct state-on-state conflict increases significantly. Given the interconnected nature of these challenges, a comprehensive and cooperative approach is essential to prevent further escalation and promote regional stability. However, with so many competing interests and historical grievances, the path to peace remains fraught with peril. Keep in mind that my information is only up to June 2024, and the situation may have changed since then.