A Review of the RAND Research Report “Has Trust in the U.S. Intelligence Community Eroded? An Analysis”
This research report published by the RAND Corporation aims to analyze whether trust in the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) has eroded over time and if so, what were the potential causes and factors contributing to this. The report does this through an extensive literature review on the topic, interviews with 11 former and current IC and policymaking officials, and analysis of historical instances of interactions between administrations and the IC.
In terms of methodology, the literature review is quite comprehensive in covering academic works analyzing bias and trust at the individual, organizational and interactional levels. The research then shifts to a systematic literature review through defined search strings to validate the initial findings. Conducting interviews with officials is also a valuable approach to gain first-hand insights. However, being a qualitative study, there are limitations in terms of sample size and potential biases in individual recollections.
The findings suggest that the degree of perceived bias highly depends on the ruling presidential administration. Past examples illustrated how administrations from Kennedy to Nixon showed differing attitudes towards the IC and pressure to alter analyses. The Reagan and Bush Sr. years saw influences from Cold War hawks. Significant events like the Ames scandal and 9/11 attacks impacted public trust dynamics as well.
Detailed case studies of the Bush, Obama and Trump administrations provide nuanced perspectives. From censorship of dissent to spreading unattributed analyses, the Bush administration seems to have violated IC independence principles the most. The Obama administration similarly faced allegations of politicization, though to a lesser extent. Recent distrust of the IC again peaked under Trump through open dismissal of intelligence and retribution against non-supportive officials.
In conclusion, the report systematically argues that bias and trust dynamics ebb and flow depending on the administration, with different flavors of politicization evident in each case. While not definitive, this is an in-depth addition to the literature on a complex topic with significant policy implications. The qualitative approach and findings provide a thought-provoking framework for further discussion and research.
Dictus, Christopher, Yuliya Shokh, Isabelle Nazha, Marek N. Posard, Richard S. Girven, Sina Beaghley, and Anthony Vassalo, Has Trust in the U.S. Intelligence Community Eroded? Examining the Relationship Between Policymakers and Intelligence Providers. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA864-1.html. Also available in print form.
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